The Wonders of Probability

Introduction

What is probability you may ask? Probability is a way of calculating and expressing the likelihood of something happening. It is expressed in the form of a number between 0 and 1. If the probability of something happening is 1, that means that it is considered a certainty. If the probability is 0, the event is considered impossible. In this activity, students will be able to explore the wonders of probability.  Students will discover how probability works and how they can apply it to the real world for personal connections whether it is for a future job or to win at a game. 

Task

You will be able to explore probability and what it means in word problems.

You will learn different way to express probability numerically: decimal, ratio, and percentage

You will learn how to solve for word problems based on probability.

Process

Define probability. After having a definition, think of an example of probability that you may have encountered in your life.  

When solving each problem, make sure you set up a ratio between the total number of outcomes and the specific questions asked. You will write your answers as a fraction, decimal, and percentage. For example, of the chance of flipping heads is ½ then your fraction would be ½, your decimal would be .5, and your percentage would be 50%.

Before beginning your worksheet, we will test out your probability skills. You will be challenged to play the probability game online and see how well you know your probability vocabulary words and concepts. Run through the game at least ten times. As you go, make sure you are marking if you got them correct or not because at the end of your trial, you will make a probability guess on yourself with your own data.

            TO PLAY:

  • Move the mouse to the question mark and click to choose one of the 5 choices (certain, impossible, likely, unlikely, equally likely)
  • After picking an answer, click the “CHECK” button to discover if your answer is either correct or incorrect
  • To start a new problem, make sure to click on the small broom on the upper right of the corner

Next challenge, answer the following questions:

  • Your sock drawer is a mess. Twelve black socks and six red socks are mixed together. What are the chances that, without looking you pick a red sock? What are the chances of picking a black sock?
  • There is a cage of 8 parakeets at the Loving Pets Store. The birds have been banded on one leg with colored bands. Two of the birds have yellow bands, 3 have prange bands, and 3 have red bands. First thing in the morning, the pet caretaker gives the birds clean food and water. What is the chance that a parakeet with a yellow band will be the first to drink out of the fresh water dish?
    • Fraction:
    • Decimal:
    • Percent:
  • Alex has a box of different colored pencils. There are 60 pencils in all, made up of 10 blue, 15 green, 10 red, and 10 silver. What are the chances Alex will pick a greej pencil if he chooses one with his eyes closed?
    • Fraction:
    • Decimal:
    • Percent:
  • Drees works in a factory that makes combs. The following graph shows the number of defective combs per batch (1 batch is 500 combs):

Batch #                                    1      2      3      4

# of Defective Combs             34    23    33    26

            If the factory produces 50 batches a month, how many defective combs should Drees expect them to produce?

Evaluation
 

 
 

Beginning

1

Developing

2

Accomplished

3

Exemplary

4

 

 

Probability game

 

The student did not participate in the game. No data is recorded, and no worksheet is completed

The student participates in the game but does not record their results and does not complete the worksheet.

The student participates in the game and records the results but does not complete worksheet.

The student was able to meet all that was required of them (participation in the game, recorded the results found, and completed the worksheet.

 

 

Probability Problems

 

Some information is shown, no data recorded, not all information is shown.  

Some data missing and only some record of calculations or notes.

Complete data, but missing records of calculations or notes.. 

Data table complete and complete records of calculations and notes..

  

 

Probability Problems

 

Effort is there but lacks the correct answer for answer in ration, fraction, and percent.

The student was able to identify one of the answers correctly (as a fraction, ratio, or percent)

The student was able to identify 2 of the answers correctly (as a fraction, ratio, or percent)

The student was able to identify all of the answers correctly (as a fraction, ratio, or percent)

  
Conclusion

Through this WebQuest, we have learned to find and determine probability in different scenarios and word problems. We were able to find and write different solutions to express our answers. Of these different expressions included ratios, fractions, and percentages.

 

Teacher Page

Introduction

What is probability you may ask? Probability is a way of calculating and expressing the likelihood of something happening.  It is expressed in the form of a number between 0 and 1.  If the probability of something happening is 1, that means that it is considered a certainty.  If the probability is 0, the event is considered impossible. In this activity, students will be able to explore the wonders of probability.  Students will discover how probability works and how they can apply it to the real world for personal connections whether it is for a future job or to win at a game.