Introduction
Welcome to your Year 4 Probability Webquest
Follow the links and tabs to learn about chance and probability.
We will engage in our lessons and learning through a specially designed Webquest! Throughout this journey, we'll look into chance and probability, enhance our language skills, document information, make predictions, and look at how we are already using probability in our everyday lives.
Here is a introduction video to remind us of what probability is:
Task
In this web-quest you apply your understanding of probability concepts to create a probability experiment. Each of you in the class will create an experiment using different variations of probability. We will explore probability in everyday events, use dice and coins. You will need to work through each of the lessons to have an understanding of each of the different probability concepts, then you will take a concept and create a probability experiment that you and the whole class can do. It can be any experiment of your choosing, it just has to use the concepts learnt throughout this webquest.
By the end of this webquest you will be able to:
- Make connections between outcomes and the likelihood of an event occurring, and recognise outcomes as equally likely, certain, and impossible.
- Collect and record data and apply that to the likelihood of an event occurring.
- Solve problems by modelling and recording authentic situations involving chance events.
- Able to identify the language of probability as fractions, percentages and decimals
Process
Lesson 1 - Probability Language
In this lesson we are going to explore the language used in probability. The language used in probability allows us to describe the likelihood of an event happening.
Here is a video exploring the language we use:
For the first task of this lesson, you are going to write some of these words on a sticky note (at least 4) and place them at the top of your workbook. On this page you are going to write down the events given to you underneath the correct describing word.
Example:
| Impossible | Certain |
Event - Miss Zara is going to turn into a fish when she drinks her water.
This event would go underneath impossible because it is impossible and definitely not going to happen.
Events:
|
A planned educational excursion to a museum, zoo, or historical site. |
|
A professional or expert visits the school to give a talk or presentation. |
|
A whole school assembly. |
|
Lunchtime. |
|
A professional or expert visits the school to give a talk or presentation. |
|
A Fire Drill. |
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A helicopter lands on the oval. |
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All the teachers come to school without shoes on. |
|
Principal visits the classroom. |
After writing these events underneath the correct describing word, I want you to come up with some of your own events for each of the words you have chosen.
Task 2 - Have a go at this online quiz and see how you go with the knowledge you have learnt so far.
https://au.ixl.com/maths/year-3/certain-probable-unlikely-and-impossible
Lesson 2
In this lesson we are going to learn how to identify things or events where the chance of them happening is affected by the chance of other events occurring as well as independent events.
Independent events do not affect one another and do not increase or decrease the probability of another event happening
Dependent events influence the probability of other events – or their probability of occurring is affected by other events.
Examples
Independent: You flip a coin and get a head and you flip a second coin and get a tail. The two coins don't influence each other.
Dependent: There is a high chance of a cyclone on Friday, it is unlikely that the school football carnival will happen on Friday.
After watching the video you will complete the matching activity. This activity wants you to look at familiar events where one will not happen if the other does.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/19jYQO_uMCEThUMw8O_s9zFAsRh_QZwdJhEb_pOJemGM/edit?usp=sharing
Once you have completed this activity, complete this quiz to test yourself.
https://au.ixl.com/maths/year-4/identify-independent-and-dependent-events
Lesson 3
In this lesson we are going to look at probability when using a dice or a coin and how to record the outcomes.
When looking at probability of a standard dice, there are 6 possible outcomes: 1,2,3,4,5,6.
First Task:
You are going to roll a dice 10 times, each time you roll the dice you are going to record what number is lands on in a table. Tallying in a table is a way of recording possible outcomes.
| Number on Dice Face | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Tally |
Questions:
- Which number came up most often? ____
- Which face came up least often? ____
- Do you think you would get the same results if you did this again but rolled the dice more times?
Once you have completed 10 rolls and recorded the results. I want you to roll the dice 50 times and enter it in the same table and answer the same questions.
| Number on Dice Face | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Tally |
|
Questions:
- Which number came up most often? ____
- Which face came up least often? ____
- Do you think you would get the same results if you did this again but rolled the dice more times?
If you are unsure about tallying, watching this video to help remind you:
Task 2: Flipping a coin
When looking at the probability of a coin there is two possible outcomes: heads or tails. The probability of flipping a coin is equal, each side has an equal chance of landing face up.
I want you to predict what will happen when the coin is flipped. How many times they think it will land on heads out of 10 flips?
Use this virtual coin https://flipsimu.com/ and record the amount of times in lands on either heads or tails in your book using this table:
|
Coin Face |
Tally |
|
Heads |
|
|
Tails |
|
Repeat this table flipping the coin 20 times.
Are the results the same?
Lesson 4
Probability can be represented in different ways, in lesson 1 we used words such as likely and unlikely the describe the chance of an everyday event occurring. The probability of an event occurring can also be represented using numbers. Watch this video to get an understanding of probability being represented using numbers.
Task 1 - Create a probability line using using these words, numbers and percentages and put the in the correct line.
| Words | Percentage | Numbers |
|
Unlikely |
100% | 0.5 |
|
Impossible |
50% |
0.25
|
|
Certain
|
75% | 1 |
|
Likely
|
25% | 0 |
|
Even
|
0% | 0.75 |
Task 2: Practice probability using this spinner game. Use level 1, start by selecting on a number line. The spinner will give you a question, then you must select where on the number line, the answer is to the question.
For example the spinner might ask "what is the probability of scoring less than 5?" so you must select the answer on the number line.
https://mathsframe.co.uk/en/resources/resource/233/probability
Lesson 5
Create your own probability experiment for the entire class using coins, dice, or alternative objects. Additionally, prepare a table to document the outcomes .
Examples:
Bottle Flipping Experiment - What is the probability out of landing a bottle flip out of 10 throws?
Coin Flip Race - One person is trying to get heads, one person is trying to get tails, whoever gets 10 of their coin face wins.
To create your own probability experiment, you will need to include:
- Materials Used
- A table where results can be recorded.
- A piece of paper with the instructions on how to play the game or do the experiment.
Evaluation
TEACHERS ONLY
Assessment Rubric - Highlight the level at which the child is at for each of the different criteria when assessing the web-quest.
|
Criteria |
Excellent |
Meeting |
Basic |
Needs Improvement |
|
Probability Vocabulary |
Demonstrates a use of probability vocabulary consistently and accurately. |
Uses probability vocabulary effectively, with minor errors with some understanding. |
Utilises basic probability vocabulary but may have inaccuracies or inconsistencies |
Struggles to use appropriate probability vocabulary, hindering understanding. |
|
Listing and Ordering of Events Using Vocabulary and Numbers |
Lists a set of events, both at school and home, displaying a large understanding. |
Provides a solid range of events at school and home, demonstrating a good understanding. |
Lists events with limited variety or fails to capture the full scope of possibilities. |
Lists only a few events, lacking diversity and understanding of the concept. |
|
Identifying Dependent and Independent Events |
Displays a comprehensive understanding, consistently applying concepts with precision. |
Shows a solid understanding of dependent and independent events and applies probability rules effectively.
|
Demonstrates a basic understanding of the concepts but may struggle with application.
|
Lacks understanding of dependent and independent events and their application in probability. |
|
Probability using Dice and Coins |
Shows a comprehensive and advanced understanding, consistently applying concepts with precision using dice and coins. |
Shows a solid understanding of probability concepts related to dice and coins, consistently applying rules. |
Demonstrates a basic understanding of probability concepts related to dice and coins but may struggle with consistent application. |
Lacks a foundational understanding of probability concepts related to dice and coins. |
|
Recording of Results |
Communicates probability results exceptionally well, showcasing a deep and thorough understanding. |
Communicates probability results clearly and effectively using a table and tally marks, demonstrating a solid understanding. |
Communicates with some clarity, but gaps in understanding may be evident. |
Unable to effectively communicate the recorded probability results using a table and tally system. |
|
Overall understanding and quality of the probability experiment
|
Creates a high-quality probability experiment that effectively demonstrates the application of concepts learnt and engages the class. |
Develops a good-quality probability experiment, demonstrating a solid application of concepts and engaging the class to a satisfactory extent. |
Creates a basic probability experiment with for improvement in overall concept application and class engagement. |
Fails to create a compelling probability experiment, lacking both concept application and class engagement. |
Teacher Page
Introduction -
Each lesson has a learning intention and a success criteria for the teacher to follow so the children have a clear understanding of why they must complete each of the lessons in the webquest.
Proficiency Strands:
Understanding: Students can make connections between outcomes and the likelihood of an event occurring.
Fluency: Students can collect and record data and apply that to the likelihood of an event occurring.
Problem-solving: Students can solve problems by modelling and recording authentic situations involving chance events.
Reasoning: Students can communicate information using visual graphs and evaluate different data displays' appropriateness.
Lesson 1
Learning Intention - Students will learn how to list events, such as things that happen at school or home and order them from "least likely" to "most likely" to happen. In this activity, students will learn the vocabulary used when discussing the probability of an event occurring.
Success Criteria - Students can successfully list events, such as things that happen at school or home and order them from "least likely" to "most likely" to happen using the correct probability vocabulary.
Lesson 2
Learning Intention - Students will learn how to identify things or events where the chance of them happening is affected by the chance of other events occurring.
Success Criteria - Students can successfully name events where the probability of them happening is affected by the chance of other things occurring. For example, given that there is a high chance of a snowstorm on Friday, there is only a tiny chance that the school football carnival will happen on Friday.
Lesson 3
Learning Intention - Students will learn how to record and order the outcomes of experiments using different physical or online random generators such as coins, dice and various spinners.
Success Criteria - Students can use different generators such as coins, dice and spinners to record and order the outcomes from the experiment chosen.
Lesson 4
Learning Intention - Students will learn how to represent the probability of something using numbers, fractions and percentages and where to place them correctly on a probability line.
Success Criteria - Students can successfully determine the probability of an event occurring can also be represented using numbers.
Lesson 5
Learning Intention - Students will learn about creating their own probability experiment so that the whole class can play and the results can be recorded.
Success Criteria - Students successfully create a experiment or game that demonstrates their understanding of probability.
Year 4 Probability Curriculum Links
(AC9M4P01) - describe possible everyday events and the possible outcomes of chance experiments and order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring; identify independent or dependent events.
(AC9M4P02) conduct repeated chance experiments to observe relationships between outcomes; identify and describe the variation in results.
ACARA. (2022). F-10 Curriculum | V9 Australian Curriculum. V9.Australiancurriculum.edu.au. https://v9.australiancurriculum.edu.au/f-10-curriculum/learning-areas/m…