Introduction
What is Probability/Chance?
If something is certain to happen, then we know it will. If an event is not going to happen, then we know it won't. So, changes can be explained as possible events, unlikely events, and events of equal chance that may or may not happen. If it is going to happen, it is surely going to happen and if it is not going to happen then it is surely not going to happen.
Sometimes, we hear people saying, "It looks like it is going to be very hot today" or "It is going to rain today" about the weather. Sometimes we also see in the news or in the internet that " There is a 50% of chance of raining at 12 pm" which can be explained as a most likely event, in other words, "Probability". Probability is about explaining the possibility of something happening. The probability of something happening is always in a range between 0-1 or 0%-100%. Certain things will surely happen, making the chance of it happening is 1 or 100%. It can also be the opposite as certain things will surely not happen, making the chance 0 or 0%. Some things can and cannot happen, making the chances ½ or 50%. The chance or probability is always described either in percentages, decimals, or fractions and can be described in all three.
This website is designed for students of year 4 to help them learn what is Probability/chance in a play-based learning method. Please watch the video, to begin with and we will learn more about probability in steps.
Task
Title: Chance in year 4
Content Descriptor: Identify everyday events where one cannot happen if the other happens (ACMSP093 - Scootle)
Elaborations: Using examples such as weather, which cannot be dry and wet at the same time.
Learning Intention: Students will develop their understanding of chance by identifying practical activities and events that involve chance and understanding of the mathematical concept; the use of common chance terms such as likely, unlikely, certain, uncertain, possible, and impossible by partaking in a variety of hands-on chance activities to investigate data. (Chance_year4, n.d.)
General Capabilities:
1. Literacy
2. Numeracy
3. Critical and creative thinking
4. Personal and social capability
5. Intercultural understanding
Prior knowledge linked to the topic: Conduct chance experiments, identify and describe possible outcomes and recognize the variation in results (ACMSP067 - Scootle)
Elaborations: Conducting repeated trials of chance experiments such as tossing a coin or drawing a ball from a bag and identifying the variations between trials
Proficiencies or key ideas
1. Teachers need to plan lessons interesting, engaging, and appropriate for the students to be able to motivate them to learn.
2. The students will follow and concentrate the teacher’s explanation regarding the topic to be able to understand too later learn, trying to reason and apply the acquired knowledge later in their everyday lives.
Task:
You will be required to participate in play-based assessments, conducting repeated trials of chance experiments using prior knowledge and the knowledge gained from this website.
Process
Lesson 1
Let's watch a short of how many different climates there are and if we know about those all.
Have we had fun watching and learning about different climates? Let's see if we can correctly answer some probabilities about some weather forecasts. Below there is a short quiz which you will have to answer and once finished let your teacher know by raising your hand and waiting patiently for your friends to finish so that we can check the answers together.
|
|
Impossible (0-20%) |
Unlikely (20-40%) |
Even chance (40-50%) |
Likely (50-80%) |
|
|
1. It will rain today |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. It will rain and be sunny at the same time. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. The sky is cloudy and sunny at the same time. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. Wet season in Darwin is very hot. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. Chances of snow falling in Darwin. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. It will be dark in the morning. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. Berlin, Germany is very cold in December. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. Chances of snow falling in Berlin in December. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. There is 50% of raining tomorrow. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. During a heavy storm, the house will be damaged. |
|
|
|
|
|
Lesson 2
We all like to toss coins and have fun guess if it is head or tail right? When we guess that it is actually the chances or the probabilities of getting the head or tail while tossing. Let's flip some coins and see if we can answer the probability of getting head and tail by answering a short quiz below.
|
When tossing a coin |
Impossible (0-20%) |
Unlikely (20-40%) |
Even chance (40-50%) |
Likely (50-80%) |
Certainly (80-100%) |
|
1. If you toss the coin once and you get head, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. If you toss the coin once and you get tail, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. If you toss the coin once and you get both head and tail, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. If you toss the coin twice and you get head, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. If you toss the coin twice and you get tail, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. If you toss the coin 10 times and you get head 5 times, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. If you toss the coin 10 times and you get tail 5 times, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. If you toss the 2 coins once and you get a head and a tail, what is the probability? |
|
|
|
|
|
Lesson 3
We love to eat M&Ms. They are so yummy. So, let's say I give you all a back full of M&Ms which has red, blue, green, and yellow M&Ms inside. Can you guess if I ask you to take only one from inside what are the chances of getting the red M&Ms? Let's play a game and find out, shall we?
|
|
Impossible (0-20%) |
Unlikely (20-40%) |
Even chance (40-50%) |
Likely (50-80%) |
Certainly (80-100%) |
|
1. If I ask you to take only 1 M&Ms, the chance of getting a red is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. If I ask you to take only 1 M&Ms, the chance of getting green is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. If I ask you to take only 1 M&Ms, the chance of getting a blue is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. If I ask you to take only 1 M&Ms, the chance of getting a yellow is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. If I ask you to take only 1 M&Ms, chances of getting 2 reds are, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. If I ask you to take only 1 M&Ms, chances of getting 4 different colors, |
|
|
|
|
|
Lesson 4
Let’s draw a circle and divide it into 6 equal parts and then we will assign the parts into 1,2,3,4,5,6. After that we will color the parts of the circle. Let’s play a game, shall we?
If we color number 1 what part of the circle is colored? Similarly, if we color 1,2, how many parts of the circle are colored?
Now, let's roll some dices as well to make the game more interesting.
|
While rolling the dice, |
Impossible (0-20%)
|
Unlikely (20-40%)
|
Even chance (40-50%)
|
Likely (50-80%)
|
Certainly (80-100%)
|
|
1. The chances of getting 1 is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. The chances of getting 3 is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. The chances of getting 1 and 2 is |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. The chances of getting all 6 numbers are, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. The chances of getting 0 is, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. The chances of getting 4 and 2 together is, |
|
|
|
|
|
Evaluation
|
|
Excellent |
Good |
Satisfactory |
Limited |
|
Lesson 1 |
Clear concept of the probable outcome of the weather forecast, how the probability can be addressed using % |
Clear concept of the probable outcome of the weather forecast with minimal confusion |
Good grasp of how Probability can be addressed and listing them |
Limited understanding of the probable events |
|
Lesson 2 |
Demonstrate their prior knowledge of probability from lesson 1 and develop their understanding of the topic |
Demonstrate their prior knowledge of probability appropriately from lesson 1 with minimal confusion |
Attempt to use their prior knowledge of probability and try to understand of the topic with minimal supervision |
Attempt to little effort to understand the topic, needs supervision and help |
|
Lesson 3 |
Strong understanding of the question and can predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring in chance questions |
Can predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring in chance questions |
With some help, student can predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring in chance questions |
Having some trouble to solve questions and require extra support |
|
Lesson 4 |
Strong understanding of the question and can predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring in chance questions |
Can predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring in chance questions |
With some help, student can predict the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring in chance questions |
Having some trouble to solve questions and require extra support |
Conclusion
After going through multiple probability-related questions starting from weather forecasts probability, gradually moving on to coins, M&Ms, and dices, the students will be able to understand difficult levels of probability-related problems. They will be able to describe rules used in sequences involving whole numbers, fractions, and decimals, locating fractions, and integers on a number line, calculating a simple fraction of a quantity. They will also be able to add, subtract and multiply decimals and divide decimals where the result is rational, calculating common percentage discounts on sale items. The main focus of this WebQuest is to help students describe probabilities using simple fractions, decimals, and percentages. (Australian Curriculum, n.d.)
Credits
Resources:
* Materials that will be needed to complete all tasks-
- Worksheet
- Math books
- Paper and pencils
- coins
- M&Ms
- Dices
* The students will be both assessed in groups and individually.
* After finishing the assessment, the teacher will discuss in constructive discussion regarding the assessment, offering clear insights while answering any questions raised.
References:
- Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority [ACARA]. (2014). Foundation to year 10 curriculum: Understand how mathematics works. Retrieved from https://australiancurriculum.edu.au/f-10-curriculum/mathematics/?year=11755&strand=
- Probability and pancakes | Global Education. (n.d.). Globaleducation.edu.au. Retrieved February 12, 2022, from https://globaleducation.edu.au/teaching-activity/probability-and-pancakes-3-4.html
- US Department of Commerce, N. (n.d.). FAQ - What is the Meaning of PoP. Www.weather.gov. https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop(US Department of Commerce, n.d.)
- Probability: Types of Events. (2017). Mathsisfun.com. https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-types.html
- Dice Roll Probability: 6-Sided Dice. (n.d.). Statistics How To. https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/probability-main-index/dice-roll-probability-6-sided-dice/
- Probability: Dice. (n.d.). https://www.pdx.edu/learning-center/sites/g/files/znldhr3391/files/2020-07/Probability_Dice.pdf
Teacher Page
Proficiencies or key ideas
1. Teachers need to plan lessons interesting, engaging, and appropriate for the students to be able to motivate them to learn.
2. The students will follow and concentrate the teacher’s explanation regarding the topic to be able to understand too later learn, trying to reason and apply the acquired knowledge later in their everyday lives.
By the end of this assessment, students will develop their understanding of chance by identifying practical activities and events that involve chance and understanding of the mathematical concept; the use of common chance terms such as likely, unlikely, certain, uncertain, possible, and impossible by partaking in a variety of hands-on chance activities to investigate data. (Chance_year4, n.d.). They will also be able to build on their prior knowledge and justify choices of likelihood by referring to past experience, enhancing their knowledge using past learning about unlikely and likely events, making predictions about probabilities. They will be able to use decimals, percentages, and fractions accurately to answer the problems and at the same time compare the result with their peers.