The Chase (Rules of Probability)

Introduction

Introduction

You and your team have been selected to be contestants on the popular game show The Chase. In this game you will answer several that deal with the probability theory if answered correctly you could win up to $1,000,000,000 to be used to start a business of your choice.

Task

Task

You will be using the rules of probability and expected value analysis to the game show The Chase

After reviewing online math resources, you will demonstrate your understanding of the relevant probability and expected value concepts by answering a series of questions.

Next, you will try your luck by playing the game. You will engage in simulations of The Chase  game while computing the probability of various outcomes.  Initially, you will answer as many questions correctly as possible during a one-minute rapid-fire round, each correct answer will add $5,000 to your team’s bank.  Each player must answer five questions correctly without being caught to bank the money for their team and continue to the Final Chase.

The goal is to answer enough questions correctly to move the earned winnings into the team bank without being caught by the chaser, whose job is to catch them by take advantage of mistakes made by you and your team.

Process

Process

Step One: Watch the following video of a portion of one segment of the show, to gather an idea of hoe The Chase works. What would you have done if you were the contestant?

[video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIJE7gXIiMA align:center]

Step Two: Click on the following links to learn, or refresh your memory, about expected value and probability calculations. Test your understanding by completing the exercise on the websites to ensure that you understand how to apply the rules.

Expected Value Video - How would you calculate the expected value of playing The Chase game? You're in round four of the game and have to select the option to select $500,000 to try and bank or $10,000, how would you calculate the probability of picking the lower number?

Step Four: Formulate different strategies that you think might improve your chances for winning a large dollar amount.

Step Five:  Test out your strategies by playing the game.  Your team should play the game at least three times for each strategy you consider. Record the results of your team’s games to use in evaluating your strategies.

Evaluation

Evaluation

This is how your work will be evaluated.

 

Beginning 1

Developing 2

Qualified 3

Exemplary 4

Score

Completion

of

Worksheet

Student answers the questions with many errors showing a lack of understanding of the expected value and probability rules.

Student answers the questions with errors but showing some understanding of expected value and probability rules.

Student shows an understanding of expected value and probability rules but makes two or more slight errors.

Student clearly shows a good understanding of expected value and probability rules with no more than one slight error.

Game Playing Strategy

Student's game playing strategy shows a lack of understanding of expected value and probability rules.

Student's game playing strategy shows some understanding of expected value and probability rules but fails to incorporate conditional probability.

Student's game playing strategy incorporates conditional probability and shows an understanding of expected value and probability rules.

Student's game playing strategy incorporates conditional probability effectively and demonstrates a good understanding of expected value and probability rules.

Conclusion

Conclusion

If you completed all of the tasks in this WebQuest, then you have utilized probability rules to help develop a winning strategy.  Remember that strategy will only accomplish so much; to win the top amounts, you have to be lucky too.

Credits

Credits/Resourses

This lesson requires individual classroom computers with internet access and Microsoft Excel software. Additionally, students with internet access at home or on mobile devices will be able to work on their strategies as homework to reduce the classroom time for this lesson. 

Teacher Page

Teacher Introduction

This lesson utilizes the popular game show The Chase to help students better understand expected value analysis and probability theory. Students will have the opportunity to experiment with different strategies of their own design based on probability analysis to try to improve their game playing success.