Ms. Campbell's Statistics Course

Introduction

                       What is probability? How do you calculate probability?

                                Does probability really even matter (DUH!)?

 

Think of an example . . .  

Pour yourself a handful of ten M&M’s. What colors do you see – red, blue, yellow, green, and brown?

Assuming you poured these M&M’s at random, how many of each color should you have? You should have an equal amount of each color, but that is very rarely actually the case. This illustrates the difference in Empirical Probability and Theoretical Probability.

 

M&M’s are just one example that illustrate probability, and the different kinds of probability! We see so many examples like this in everyday life. We also are so used to calculating probabilities in our head, that we don’t even realize it! Probability is a topic that impacts so many decisions that we make every single day – such as whether we should wear our rainboots today, or whether or not you want to take your chances and purchase a lottery ticket.

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to calculate the Theoretical Probability of an event, as well as the Empirical Probability. You will also be able to identify why there were any discrepancies between the two.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDov7vaOWeU

 

Task

                                                                  Image result for coin flip

During this course, you will utilize various resources - including the Internet, YouTube, your peers, and your own observation techniques! The purpose of these tasks will be to not only give you a clear understanding of what probability is but why it is relevant to you.

My goal is to provide you with the tools necessary to guide your understanding of probability. I hope you will use your own creativity and critical thinking to explore what probability means to YOU!

 

By the end of this lesson, you should be able to do the following:

1. Define Theoretical Probability and Empirical Probability.

2. Calculate probability.

3. Identify reasons for discrepancies in Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities.

4. Apply knowledge of probabilities to identify scenarios where Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities are not equal, calculate the different probabilities, and explain why they are not equal.

Process

The following assignments are to be completed individually. Some of these assignments will be open-response, or written assignments. Please make sure to cite any sources that you use, and DO NOT simply copy and paste someone else’s work. You may use the suggested resources, or may look elsewhere for sources. Use critical thinking with these assignments, and feel free to ask for assistance at any point!

 

Assignment 1: What is Probability?

In this assignment, you will need to watch Video 1 and review the following PowerPoint.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxYReJ1yjuE

archive.geogebra.org/.../Apr11_Project2_ul.ppt 

Write a response (500-word minimum) that answers the following:

  1. What is probability?
  2. What is the difference between Theoretical Probability and Empirical (Experimental) Probability?
  3. What are three examples of how we use probability in everyday life?

 

 

Assignment 2: Practice Calculating Probability.

Review the following lesson over probability (http://express.smarttech.com/?url=http://exchangedownloads.smarttech.com/public/content/2f/2fc491c7-348b-448a-ae51-84ac3c145f7a/probability.notebook#) .

 

Watch Video 2 about how to calculate probability.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqTioYM0L7I

You will then go onto www.mrnussbaum.com and play the “Probability Fair” game. After you have completed the game, you will take a screenshot of your total score. Attach this screenshot to a Word document.

 

 

Assignment 3: Calculating Probability

Go through the following interactive White Board: http://studyjams.scholastic.com/studyjams/jams/math/probability/find-probability.htm

Use any other previous resources to complete the following worksheet.

 

 

Assignment 4: Creating Your Own Scenario.

For this assignment, review Theoretical and Empirical Probabilities. You will then describe a scenario in which the Theoretical Probability of an event occurring does not equal its Empirical Probability (you CANNOT use the candy example). You must address, in no less than 500 words, the following:

  1. Clearly describe this scenario.
  2. Calculate the Empirical Probability.
  3. Calculate the Theoretical Probability.
  4. Why does the Empirical Probability not equal the Theoretical Probability?

 

 

Assignment 5: Test

Review any previous materials.

Take the following test in Quizlet.  https://quizlet.com/381809765/test 

 

Evaluation

For assignment 4, the following rubric will be used:

http://rubistar.4teachers.org/index.php?ts=1552857086 

Conclusion

What have you learned?

  • Theoretical Probability
  • Empirical Probability
  • Differences between theoretical and Empirical Probabilities and why they differ
  • Real-life examples of probabilities

 

What's left to learn?

  • How to utilize this learning to understand real-life scenarios
  • Understanding of why theoretical and empirical probabilities differ in everyday life

Credits

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