Asteroid Hunters

Introduction

Asteroid Hunters

Image result for comet

Shown above is Comet 67P as it approaches the sun.

Image result for asteroid

Shown above is a short RADAR time-lapse of the asteroid 2014 JO25 as observed from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico.

On February 15, 2013, a meteor screamed through the air over Chelyabinsk, Russia.  Watch the video below to get a sense for what this experience looked, felt, and sounded like. You may just watch the first 5 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpmXyJrs7iU

Here is a short compilation of 5 major meteor events.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6yyh7kEgdc

What if one of these meteors had been larger?  Would it have broken up over the atmosphere like these did?  It would likely cause a LOT more damage.  What plans does humanity have in place in the event that we discover a life-threatening asteroid headed our way?  Should we knock it in half with a thermonuclear device, as in the suspenseful climax of the 1998 doomsday movie Armageddon?  Is this even possible?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwu8GJ9OCw4

What about the conclusion to the other 1998 doomsday movie Deep Impact?  In this scene, the comet is blown to smithereens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQWmd8REdaE

So what is the plan if and when a comet or asteroid is headed for an impact with Earth?  It may surprise you to learn that the answer is... Nothing.  There is no comprehensive, organized plan to deal with a doomsday-sized asteroid or comet if it is discovered.  None at all!  Solutions to this vulnerability have been dreamed up, discussed, shared, and debated, but none has been implemented and sustained in order to protect Earth from an impact.  The crazy thing is that deflecting or destroying an incoming asteroid is possible!  

So, in the interest of saving the human race in case such an eventuality does occur, you are going to develop an emergency plan to deflect or destroy an incoming celestial body that is destined to strike Earth.

You will have to make use of your skills in physics and mathematics, online databases, engineering practices, and (possibly) legal and financial implications of such an endeavor.

Task

Your assignment is to work with 3 or 4 other professionals in order to develop an emergency plan to deal with a life-threatening asteroid or comet if it is discovered to be heading for Earth.  There are some things that are required of your emergency plan, which are further explained in the Evaluation tab.

Your emergency plan must:

  • Be applicable to an actual near-Earth object (NEO) that is expected to have a close approach with Earth by the year 2100.
  • Be able to deflect or change the orbit of an actual NEO based on its mass in kilograms.  Ideally, you should be able to deflect an object as massive as 6,570 metric tons, or 6,570,000 kg.
  • Include specifications in terms of how much kinetic energy (and therefore fuel) must be used in order to destroy or deflect the NEO, and consider the NEO's velocity, mass, and current orbit in achieving deflection.
  • (IF YOU HAVE AN ECONOMIST)- Cost $2 billion or less to implement, including the construction cost of the delivery system (rocket), fuel, and the payload.
  • (IF YOU HAVE A POLITICIAN)- Involve a national or international effort that gives equity to all stakeholders (taxpayers, underrepresented groups, minorities, etc) and considers the rights of all involved.  You must also develop a summary (not very detailed) emergency plan in case the method of deflection fails.

Process

You must put together a comprehensive plan to save Earth in case an asteroid or comet impact is imminent.  No one can be expected to accomplish this task on their own, so your group of 3 to 5 will divide into different roles.  There are 3 roles required: Astronomer, NASA/ESA Engineer, and Astrophysicist.  Depending on the size of your group, there are 2 optional roles: Economist and Politician.  Each group member must take on a different role, but you may help each other and seek peer advice if you need help.

3-5 Roles

  • Astronomer
    • Your job is to describe the types of asteroid and comet threats that Earth has faced in the past and faces in the future.
      • You need to identify at least 10 asteroids or comets that are expected to approach within 380,000 km- about the distance between Earth and the moon- by the year 2100.
      • You must identify the diameter, mass, and category of each NEO.
      • You must also identify the date of closest approach, how close each asteroid or comet will come, and velocity in km/s during closest approach.  
      • You must also somehow graphically represent your information.  You may choose a scatter-plot, bar graph, or line graph, or a combination of these, which illustrates the relative properties of each of your 10 or more objects.  Axes must be properly scaled and labeled.
      • You must help the Astrophysicist calculate the energy required to deflect or destroy one of these NEO's.  
      • You must also give your list of NEO's to the Engineer so they can begin to select which one to deflect or destroy.

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  • NASA/ ESA Engineer
    • Your job is to develop a detailed plan that will destroy or deflect the object and prevent an impact with Earth.
      • You must choose the delivery vehicle (rocket) and deflection device by which to deflect the asteroid or comet.  The vehicle and deflection device must be actual extant technology possessed or in development by NASA, the ESA, or another space agency.  For the rocket, you must describe a specific model.  (For instance, Atlas V, Delta IV, etc).
      • You must determine what type of rocket fuel will be required to launch the vehicle and device.  You must also determine how many kg of the fuel will be required.  Note: In order to determine the mass of fuel required, you must determine the amount of energy is required to deliver the deflection mechanism to the NEO.  You may wish to work with the Astrophysicist in order to accomplish this complex task.
      • You must also choose the launchpad.  You might choose a launch complex such as Vandenburg Launch Complex in Califorina, or a launch complex in a different country, such as Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.  You must provide the reason or rationale for choosing that launch complex.
      • (If there is an Economist)- Your plan must be feasible in terms of its cost.  You should aim for a budget of $2 billion or less.  Otherwise, funding the project would become more difficult.
      • (If there is a Politician)- You must consult with the Politician to determine the ethical and legal implications of your delivery vehicle and deflection device.  If there are considerations to be made in terms of thermonuclear devices or other potentially destructive technology, considerations must be made to reduce risk and ensure transparency.  Also consult the Politician about the choice of launch location.  Does this choice have legal implications as well?

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  • Astrophysicist
    • Your job is to work out all the physics of the emergency plan.  This will require a lot of calculating, so expect to do lots of work on scratch paper.
      • Consult the Astronomer's list of at least 10 NEO's.  You must decide which one is the most threatening.  Perhaps it is the one that will approach closest, or the most massive one, or the one that is likely to pass near Earth the soonest.
      • You must calculate how much kinetic energy is required to either destroy or deflect the asteroid or comet.  In order to do this, you need to know the mass of the NEO in kilograms.
      • You must calculate the approximate date (year and month) that the deflection device must reach the NEO.  To do this, you will have to consider how much energy you have to work with and how long it will take the device to take effect.  For instance, mass drivers are slow-acting and will have to approach the asteroid with lots of time in advance, while a thermonuclear device can probably do the job on shorter notice.
      • The deflection device must move the NEO at least 770,000 km from Earth (twice the distance to the moon) by the date of closest approach.
      • (If there is a Politician)- Consult with the Politician in terms of what to do in case the mission fails.  How much time will governments have to prepare for an impact if the deflection device fails?  Try to develop a timeline to the greatest precision possible.

MAIN_glasgow2 courtesy of Wanda Diaz

  • (Optional) Economist
    • Your job is to determine the cost of the NEO deflection effort.  You must break cost up into different categories and identify the source of the funds.
      • You must figure out the cost of all aspects of the mission.  This will require information from the Engineer and Astrophysicist, but you can start finding information early.  Ideally, your mission to deflect the asteroid or comet will cost less than $2 billion, but this is not absolutely necessary.
        • What is the cost of building the delivery vehicle (rocket)?
        • What is the cost of producing or obtaining the specific type and amount of fuel?
        • What is the cost of developing and building the deflection device?
        • How much would it cost in monetary terms if we let the asteroid or comet strike?  Try to work out the damage to civilization and how much money that would cost in terms of lost productivity, crop failure, damage to infrastructure, and human life.
        • (If there is a Politician)- Discuss these aspects with the Politician: What is the source or sources of funding?  Taxes?  The current NASA/ESA budget?  Military spending?  Other?  Be specific and explain any legally important aspects of the funding source.

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  • (Optional) Politician
    • Your job is to figure out all the legal and ethical implications of the mission.  Who should pay for it?  Who should be involved?  What if it fails?
      • (If there is an Economist)- Consider the cost of the project.  What is the source or sources of funding?  Taxes?  The current NASA/ESA budget?  Military spending?  Other?  Be specific and explain any legally important aspects of the funding source.
      • What are the legal implications of the deflection mechanism?  For instance, if the Engineer chooses a thermonuclear device, what international laws would affect its use?  Are there key considerations you need to make in order to ensure that the mission is safe and fair for all?
      • What should people do if the deflection mission fails?  In order to develop a contingency plan, you must consult with the Engineer and Astrophysicist so you know how long governments will have to prepare their citizens before impact.  Should governments build bomb shelters, relocate people, save up food?
      • If possible, reference any specific laws, legislation, efforts to pass laws, or international agreements that would be relevant to the deflection mission.

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Resources:

Astronomer

NASA/ESA Engineer

Astrophysicist

Economist

Politician

Evaluation

Your group will develop and present a poster project during a science-fair style presentation.  During this presentation, another class of students will join our classroom and circulate around to see your work.  You will be responsible for doing multiple "mini" presentations during the class period.  The presentation should be developed on a tri-fold poster board, with meaningful organization, neatness, and professionalism.

Criterion

0 -1 points

2

3

4

5 points (Extra Credit if beyond)

NEO’s Described

NEO description missing or inadequate.

 

 

 

10 or more NEO’s described in terms of date, distance, and velocity of nearest approach.  Comparison of NEO’s graphically illustrated with a graph.

+1 EC- Current orbital path of NEO is visually illustrated.

Delivery Vehicle and Device

Vehicle and device characteristics missing or inadequate.

 

 

 

Vehicle model and characteristics described.  Appropriate mass of correct rocket fuel, including calculations to arrive at mass.  Launch complex chosen with rationale.

+1 EC- Projectile path of vehicle and device is visually illustrated.

Physics

Physics behaviors missing or inadequately done.

 

 

 

At least 1 NEO chosen.  Required energy is indicated, with all calculations shown.  Date and month of device approach identified.  NEO is deflected to a distance of at least 770,000 km from Earth at nearest approach.

+1 EC- Modified orbital path of NEO is visually illustrated.

Economics (Optional)

Economic considerations missing or inadequate.

 

 

 

All cost aspects of mission described: Fuel, vehicle, device.  Source(s) of funding are carefully defined.  Mission costs $2 billion or less.

+1 EC- Cost-benefit analysis shows economic damage if impact occurs, compared to deflecting NEO.

Politics and Law (Optional)

Political and legal considerations missing or inadequate.

 

 

 

Rights of all stakeholders are explicated.  Efforts to ensure national/International cooperation are described.  All legal precedents, laws, legislation pertaining to situation are described.  Legal implications of device and/or launch complex are described.

+1 EC- Detailed emergency plan in case vehicle or device fails.

Integration

Components of presentation show no evidence of interdependence.

 

 

 

All aspects of NEO deflection plan are integrated, meaning that roles are interdependent and rely on each other for success.  Data or information from one role is used to ensure the success of other roles.

Scoring

Presentations will be scored out of the number of points available to the 3 to 5 roles.   3 = ?/20;            4 = ?/25;           5 = ?/30

          /20

          /25

          /30

Conclusion

If- or rather, when- a life-threatening object approaches Earth in the future, we will probably have several years' advance notice, or at least several months (unlike the 18 day's notice in the movie Armageddon).  The world needs to get to work on this problem now.

Upon the completion of your work and presentation, you have done something that no nation has successfully accomplished: Developed a thoughtful, integrated, feasible approach- using existing technology and resources- to deflect or destroy an incoming near-Earth object.

This was no easy task!  And the difference between what you did and what the world needs to do is that the world's job is much harder.  We need to put together an integrated plan and maintain the technology so that we can be prepared if an NEO appears to be on a collision-course with our home planet.

Some things to consider as you walk away from this project:

  • Do you think that the Hollywood depiction of deflecting or destroying NEO's is accurate (as in the movie clips you watched in the Introduction)?
  • What general approach do you think makes the most sense to safeguard against impacts from NEO's?
  • Are we prepared?  If we spotted an imminent impact that would occur in 12 months, would we be able to save ourselves?
  • What is the relationship between scientists and engineers?  Between science and engineering?
  • Knowing what you do now, how could you have made the progress of this work more smooth?  Did your group encounter any hitches or bottlenecks when trying to solve the problem?
  • Can you imagine solving an actual problem with the group style we used?  Would you be able to solve it?  Did it take practice or patience to fulfill your role?

Credits

Teacher Page

This WebQuest is appropriate for 11th or 12th grade physics students, or possibly students in an Earth/Space Science course including some mathematical representations of astrophysics.

Students should have background knowledge in descriptive or analytical Newtonian physics.  If they are not experienced in these skills, the process and evaluation should be adjusted to meet their abilities.

It is advised that teachers allow students to choose their tasks within their groups, as long as each group of 3-5 students has an Astronomer, Engineer, and an Astrophysicist.  The Economist and Politician are optional roles, depending on class size or how you choose to group students.

It is also advised that students publicly display their tri-fold poster of their solution to the NEO problem.  The author of this WebQuest has found that students enjoy what could be called a "science fair-style presentation."  In this type of presentation, each student group develops their work on their tri-fold, and then another class (from any discipline, but preferably in science, math, or possibly economics) visits to see the work done by the students.  It is good to plan this meeting a week or two in advance, so that the visiting class has some time to prepare for their visit and have meaningful questions in order to aid in engagement during the presentations.  During the presentations, presenters stand near their posters and await a group of visitors to approach them.  The presenters explain their solution in all its aspects, taking turns for their respective parts.  The visiting students can then pose questions or concerns.  After thanking the presenters, the visitors can then move on to a different group of presenters.  If the host and visiting instructors agree, visiting students can leave anonymous feedback or "ratings" for the presenters.

This model of presentations has been effectively employed by the author several times, and students report that they have a much more meaningful and engaging (and less stressful) experience when doing presentations like this.

See the Evaluation tab for a grading rubric.

If the instructor wishes, the students can be graded on their presentation skills as well, but this would be at the instructor's discretion and is not addressed in this WebQuest.

 

 

Next Generation Science Standards:

Performance Expectations- HS-ESS1-4: Use mathematical or computational representations to predict the motion of orbiting objects in the solar system.

Science and Engineering Practices- Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Constructing explanations and designing solutions in 9-12 builds on K-8 experiences and progresses to explanations and designs that are supported by multiple and independent student-generated sources of evidence consistent with scientific ideas, principles, and theories.

Disciplinary Core Ideas- ESS1.B: Kepler's laws describe common features of the motions of orbiting objects, including their elliptical paths around the sun.  Orbits may change due to the gravitational effects from, or collisions with, other objects in the solar system.

Crosscutting Concepts- Interdependence of Science, Engineering, and Technology: Science and engineering complement each other in the cycle known as research and development.  Many R&D projects may involve scientists, engineers, and others with wide ranges of expertise.